Bounds for the probability of causation: a new formulation in Mediation Analysis

Dawid P;MURTAS, ROSSELLA;MUSIO, MONICA

2014-01-01

---

Abstract

Given even the best evidence for the dependence of an outcome vari- able on an exposure variable, we can typically only provide bounds for the "probability of causation" in the case of an individual who has developed the disease after being exposed. We show how these bounds can be im- proved or adapted if further information becomes available. In addition to the actual literature we provide a new formulation in the case of Medi- ation Analysis. Mediation studies the relationship between two variables when a third is involved in the causal pathway. In particular we will show how this mediated eect can be bounded in the case of no direct effect.