Robust inference for nonlinear regression models from the Tsallis score: application to COVID-19 contagion in Italy

Girardi, Paolo;Greco, Luca;Mameli, Valentina;Musio, Monica;Racugno, Walter;Ruli, Erlis;Ventura, Laura

2020-01-01

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Abstract

We discuss an approach of robust fitting on nonlinear regression models, both in a frequentist and a Bayesian approach, which can be employed to model and predict the contagion dynamics of COVID-19 in Italy. The focus is on the analysis of epidemic data using robust dose-response curves, but the functionality is applicable to arbitrary nonlinear regression models.