Performance estimation of a wind farm with a dependence structure between electricity price and wind speed

Casula, Laura;D'Amico, Guglielmo;Masala, Giovanni;Petroni, Filippo

2020-01-01

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Abstract

This paper aimed to estimate the income generated by a wind turbine over a given time interval. The income depends on two main variables: the wind speed that determines the produced energy and electricity price. Both wind speed and electricity price evolve randomly in time and are correlated. To consider this dependency, we applied a vector autoregressive process (VAR) that links both variables. An application was performed using real data from a hypothetical wind turbine located in Sardinia (Italy). The income simulated by using the VAR model was closer to the empirical value compared with that obtained by simulating wind speed and electricity prices as independent variables. The results were also discussed in relation to the introduction of the SAPEI submarine cable, which produces a significant change in the income value.