MULTI-SCENARIO POLICIES FOR MARITIME REPOSITIONING PROBLEMS UNDER DATA SHORTAGE

Crainic TG;DI FRANCESCO, MASSIMO;ZUDDAS, PAOLA

2008-01-01

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Abstract

Due to the global trade imbalance, some ports tend to accumulate unnecessary empty containers, while others face container shortages. As a consequence, shipping companies must properly reposition their empty containers between ports. A major difficulty in this activity consists in the many sources of uncertainty. Sometimes historical data are useless for estimating uncertain parameters, because they are inadequate, insufficient or they do not consider future changes in the operational environment. In these cases, point forecasts and uncertain parameter distributions can be generated by shipping companies’ opinions. They can be incorporated in standard deterministic optimization models and multi-scenario formulations linked by non-anticipativity conditions. In this study, we explain the importance of multi-scenario policies.