Who Took the “×” out of ExpectancyValue Theory? A Psychological Mystery, a Substantive-Methodological Synergy, and a Cross-National Generalization

Nagengast, B;Marsh, H. W;SCALAS, LAURA FRANCESCA;Xu, M;Hau, K. T;Trautwein, U.

2011-01-01

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Abstract

Expectancy-value theory (EVT) is a dominant theory of human motivation. Historically, the Expectancy × Value interaction, in which motivation is high only if both expectancy and value are high, was central to EVT. However, the Expectancy × Value interaction mysteriously disappeared from published research more than 25 years ago. Using large representative samples of 15-year-olds (N = 398,750) from 57 diverse countries, we attempted to solve this mystery by testing Expectancy × Value interactions using latent-variable models with interactions. Expectancy (science self-concept), value (enjoyment of science), and the Expectancy × Value interaction all had statistically significant positive effects on both engagement in science activities and intentions of pursuing scientific careers; these results were similar for the total sample and for nearly all of the 57 countries considered separately. This study, apparently the strongest cross-national test of EVT ever undertaken, supports the generalizability of EVT predictions—including the “lost” Expectancy × Value interaction.