The determinants of the changing speed of spread of COVID-19 across Italy
De Matteis, SaraLast
Conceptualization
2022-01-01
Abstract
The COVID-19 epidemic showed inter-regional differences in Italy. We used an ecological study design and publicly available data to compare the basic reproduction number (R-0), the doubling time of the infection (DT) and the COVID-19 cumulative incidence (CI), death rate, case fatality rate (CFR) and time lag to slow down up to a 50-days doubling time in the first and the second 2020 epidemic waves (delta DT50) by region. We also explored socio-economic, environmental and lifestyle variables with multiple regression analysis. COVID-19 CI and CFR changed in opposite directions in the second vs. the first wave: the CI increased sixfold with no evidence of a relationship with the testing rate; the CFR decreased in the regions where it was initially higher but increased where it was lower. The R-0 did not change; the initially mildly affected regions, but not those where the first wave had most severely hit, showed a greater delta DT50 amplitude. Vehicular traffic, average temperature, population density, average income, education and household size showed a correlation with COVID-19 outcomes. The deadly experience in the first epidemic wave and the varying preparedness of the local health systems might have contributed to the inter-regional differences in the second COVID-19 epidemic wave.File | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|
the-determinants-of-the-changing-speed-of-spread-of-covid-19-across-italy.pdf open access
Type: versione post-print
Size 1.42 MB
Format Adobe PDF
|
1.42 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.