Disruption Prediction with Adaptive Neural Networks for ASDEX Upgrade

CANNAS, BARBARA;FANNI, ALESSANDRA;Pautasso G;SIAS, GIULIANA;the ASDEX Upgrade Team

2011-01-01

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Abstract

In this paper, an adaptive neural system has been built to predict the risk of disruption at ASDEX Upgrade. The system contains a Self Organizing Map, which determines the ‘novelty’ of the input of a Multi Layer Perceptron predictor module. The answer of the MLP predictor will be inhibited whenever a novel sample is detected. Furthermore, it is possible that the predictor produces a wrong answer although it is fed with known samples. In this case, a retraining procedure will be performed to update the MLP predictor in an incremental fashion using data coming from both the novelty detection, and from wrong predictions. In particular, a new update is performed whenever a missed alarm is triggered by the predictor. The performance of the adaptive predictor during the more recent experimental campaigns until November 2009 has been evaluated.